The potential investment opportunity

The Potential Investment Opportunity

The Potential Investment Opportunity

Overall, U.S. retail fundamentals have experienced a recovery to above-average levels after years of structural headwinds. Meanwhile, Asia remains in the midst of a continuing recovery, now almost equaling the U.S. in average regional retail fundamental performance. Europe has lagged, but it’s worth noting that this data is limited to “High Street,"1 a sub-type that had been hit by lower foot traffic in many European downtown submarkets.

1The European retail market is comprised of various subtypes similar to the categories of the U.S., but with an additional sub-type called “High Street.” This category includes smaller shops, usually on busy shopping streets which may offer luxury items for tourists as well as local shoppers.

Key Takeaway


Our research finds that for some retail sub-types, NOI growth has been tracking upwards, but prices have moved in the opposite direction. This could translate into a positive investment thesis based on an implied mispricing for the right locations and sub-types.


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We believe this is an investment thesis that applies across all three regions. In both Europe and Asia—where NOI data is not as reliable as in the U.S.—the trajectory of rent growth underlines a similar story of deterioration followed by recovery.

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Disclaimer


The content herein and in the report is provided for informational purposes only. Nothing above or in the report constitutes investment, legal, or tax advice or recommendations. Such content should not be relied upon as a basis for making an investment decision and is not an offer of advisory services or an offer to invest in any product or asset class. It should not be assumed that any investment in an asset class described herein will be profitable. Any projections, estimates, forecasts, targets, prospects and/or opinions expressed in these materials are subject to change without notice. Opinions or beliefs expressed in these materials may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed by others. Certain information above and in the report has been obtained from third-party sources. Hines has not independently verified such information.